The classic distinction between inter-state and civil wars has become inoperative. On the basis of this typology, in 2017 the main centers of conflict were: Syria and Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the central strip of Africa (from Darfur to the DRC, via the Central African Republic and South Sudan), Libya, Yemen, Colombia and Mexico other centers are more localized (Donbass, the Niger Delta, Myanmar, the Philippines, Salvador, etc.). The map shows the type of “space” of the conflict (delimited zone, which extends beyond borders, localized or diffuse) and the demands of armed groups (contesting the powers in place or breaking away). This think tank calculates an overall index of conflict which considers intensity (weapons used, number of combatants, people killed, refugees/displaced persons and destruction wreaked). Is Mexico, where battles between drug dealers and the army have caused more than 200,000 deaths in ten years, “at war”? How many conflicts should be counted in Afghanistan since the 1970s? One single war extending over the whole period – or a number of wars in response to external interventions (USSR, NATO, etc.)?Ĭomment: This map is based on an HIIK report. Diversity – of causes, actors, and intensity of violence – makes enumerating and typologizing these wars a risky enterprise. By contrast, the North – epicenter of the bloodiest conflicts of the past (13 million deaths in the First World War, 60 million in the Second) – is now at peace, even if terrorist groups (local or international) can still strike there.Ĭontemporary conflicts are deadlier, longer-lasting and more complex to decipher: power is no longer the dominant explanatory factor. Since the Second World War, wars have shifted toward the South, with or without the intervention of the major powers.
Yet the violence of war has not disappeared – it has become dispersed.
Making peace has become more difficult, because it requires the rebuilding of state institutions and a capacity for peaceful coexistence.Ĭonflicts between states have become exceptional, partly thanks to international institutions like the UN, that have been capable of developing a body of law to deter states from embarking on military confrontations that prove costly in human, material and political terms. Despite the setting up of certain safeguards such as the International Penal Court (IPC), the international community very often seems powerless in the face of these new conflicts.
The exacerbated violence affects civilian populations most of all. While inter-state wars have become rare, contemporary conflicts result mainly from the collapse of countries’ institutional structures and the accompanying breakdown of the social contract.
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